MD 0907 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024
Areas affected…central and southern Arkansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 231304Z – 231500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A strong gust or two — or marginal hailstone — will
remain possible across central/southern Arkansas over the next
couple of hours. Marginal/isolated nature of the risk should
preclude WW issuance.
DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows storms over southwestern
Arkansas evolving a bit upscale linearly, with some bowing evident
— suggesting an at least somewhat-organized cold pool. Flow
through the lower troposphere remains moderate/southwesterly, and
thus not overly supporting well-organized storms. Additionally the
morning LZK RAOB reveals an anticipated/nocturnally induced weakly
stable surface-based layer. These factors should act to limit
overall wind risk, but with a stronger gust or two possible.
Marginal hail near severe levels may occur with a stronger updraft
or two. Overall however, given limited local risk apparent at this
time, WW issuance is not expected at this time.
..Goss/Edwards.. 05/23/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…LZK…SHV…
LAT…LON 33809426 34009366 34439339 34809272 35199193 34979133
34209118 33479147 33179213 33409400 33809426
