MD 0092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024
Areas affected…portions of southern Alabama…southwest Georgia
and the extreme northern Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11…
Valid 251934Z – 252130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.
SUMMARY…A risk for occasional damaging gusts and/or a brief
tornado will remain possible over eastern parts of WW11 and
downstream this afternoon. No downstream watch is anticipated.
DISCUSSION…As of 1925 UTC, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of
thunderstorms ongoing across west/southwest AL. More isolated
convection was also periodically noted ahead of the line within the
warm sector farther north. Over the last couple of hours, occasional
damaging gusts have been observed with stronger segments of the line
across southern MS and southwest AL within WW11. 1000 J/kg of MCLAPE
and 35-40 kt of effective shear will remain favorable for organized
segments of the line as it moves toward the eastern edge of the
watch this afternoon. While organizational trends of the line have
been down recently owing to weakening large-scale ascent, the
broadly favorable environment ahead will remain supportive of an
occasional damaging gust with any stronger storms as they move to
the east. A brief tornado is also possible given 0-1km SRH of
100-200 m2/s2 from SPC mesoanalysis. Given the recent trends with
the line and weakening forcing, a downstream watch is not
anticipated at this time.
..Lyons.. 01/25/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FFC…TAE…BMX…MOB…
LAT…LON 32658736 32988658 33248558 33188503 32908460 32528440
31938458 31548486 31158560 31028606 30898693 30898726
30908749 30938772 31008786 31478778 32658736
