MD 0928 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected…portions of central and northern Arkansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 241656Z – 241800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Some severe hail or wind may accompany the stronger storms
that may try to become established over central and northern AR this
afternoon. A WW issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity across
west-central AR over the past couple of hours, with at least one
report of 0.75 inch hail received. While earlier storms had
overturned the airmass, ample insolation and low-level warm-air
advection is supporting rapid modification of the boundary layer.
RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis show 7-8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates quickly ushering into AR from the west, which will
further boost instability. Surface temperatures in the low 80s amid
70+ F dewpoints should yield over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40-50 kts of
effective bulk shear (characterized by elongated hodographs with
modest low-level curvature). Multicells and perhaps a few supercell
structures are possible this afternoon, with severe hail and wind
gusts the main threats, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled
out. A WW issuance may be needed pending convective trends.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MEG…JAN…LZK…TSA…
LAT…LON 35539370 35889322 36129286 36099216 35869152 35189117
34279096 33869112 33519150 33469181 33789281 34369369
34839408 34979410 35539370
