MD 0932 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL IL…WEST-CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0932
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected…south-central and east-central IL…west-central IN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 241839Z – 242045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Episodic strong to occasionally severe multicells will
potentially be capable of localized wind damage (50-65 mph) and
large hail (1.0 to 1.5 inches in diameter).
DISCUSSION…A seasonably moist/moderate to strongly unstable
airmass (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) has developed across south-central
IL extending eastward into west-central IN early this afternoon.
The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerlies (30-40 kt at
500 mb) is located across the mid MS Valley into the Wabash Valley.
Weaker flow is noted in the upper levels (20-30 kt) in the 300-200mb
layer. Precipitation seeding and additional outflow/merger
processes will promote further storm/cold pool aggregation and
likely a waning risk for severe where convective overturning has
occurred. In areas void of storms currently, some risk for
strong/localized severe may move into those areas over the next few
hours. Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to
locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the stronger
cores and outflow surges.
..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…IWX…IND…LOT…ILX…LSX…
LAT…LON 38638992 39029031 39509050 39789011 39858946 39868856
40208807 40708772 40908739 41098698 41058665 40888646
40418645 39528709 38958787 38628911 38638992
