MD 0934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern North Dakota into far western
Minnesota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 242011Z – 242145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A couple of landspout tornadoes may occur with the
stronger, longer lasting cells. The severe threat should be brief
and isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION…A surface low, located along the ND/MN border,
continues to track northeast, immediately preceded by a band of
convection, where at least one tornado has already been reported.
These storms are forming within a confluence zone characterized by
locally high amounts of low-level vertical oriented vorticity and
over 200 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. This setup may promote stretching of
vorticity by any relatively discrete, sustained updraft within the
convective band that can form, supporting continued landspout
tornado potential. However, the severe threat should remain isolated
and a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGF…
LAT…LON 46219631 46759700 47249758 47669743 47729668 47319626
46849609 46389604 46219631
