SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the majority of the U.S. today. Isolated weak activity may affect parts of southern California into Saturday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will be just off the West Coast Friday morning, with an offshore upper low translating southward through the period. A stronger disturbance is forecast to rotate around the base of this trough into Saturday morning, with midlevel winds increasing and becoming nearly southerly as cooling aloft approaches. At the surface, low pressure will deepen late in the period off the coast of southern CA and toward the Channel Islands. Precipitation will increase in coverage at that time, with a few lightning flashes possible mainly offshore. Low-level wind fields and shear will be modest, and SBCAPE should remain near zero through 12Z Saturday over land. As such, overall thunderstorm activity should be minimal over land. Elsewhere, an upper ridge will temporarily exist from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes before the base of a broadening upper trough moves into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. High pressure over the southeast combined with strongly veering low-level winds should keep conditions stable over those areas through 12Z Saturday. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/14/2025
