SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal instability and weak low-level shear. ..Guyer/Smith.. 11/14/2025
