SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of the lower Colorado Valley into Colorado Plateau and portions of the central Great Plains, but the risk for severe storms still appears negligible Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed Sunday through Sunday night, mainly from coastal Maine through the Canadian Maritimes, as an associated short wave trough digs southeast of the lower Great Lakes region and reinforces positively tilted large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern Canada and the Northeast into adjacent western Atlantic. In the wake of the cyclone, a cold front appears likely to advance southeast of the northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley, offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard through the Carolinas into the Gulf Coast states by late Sunday night. Upstream, splitting troughing, within a broad area of generally higher mid/upper heights, is forecast to continue to approach the U.S Pacific coast, with perhaps the digging southern perturbation supporting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the central California coast Sunday night. It appears that this will contribute to the continued east-northeastward acceleration of the remnants of an initially cut-off low, northeast of the lower Colorado Valley through the Rockies. Modest deepening of lee surface troughing will probably be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level flow across the high plains, but it appears that better boundary-layer moistening off the Gulf Basin will be confined beneath a relatively warm and capping lower/mid-tropospheric environment across the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains. ...Southwest into Great Plains... Cooling mid-levels, preceded by low-level moisture return from the lower latitudes of the eastern Pacific and Gulf of California, may contribute to thermodynamic profiles conducive to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning across parts of the Southwest through southern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night. It is possible that this could include modest boundary layer destabilization during the day across the deserts of southwestern into central Arizona, in the presence of at least strong deep-layer shear. A couple of thunderstorms with potential to produce hail and surface gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits might not be completely out of the question. While probabilities for this still generally appear negligible, it is possible that this could change with diminishing model spread in later outlooks for this period. Otherwise, as mid/upper forcing for ascent increases downstream of the Colorado Rockies by late Sunday night, an elevated moistening layer rooted near or above 700 mb might destabilize sufficiently to support weak convection capable of producing lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/14/2025
