SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across parts of the upper Ohio Valley through late evening. 00 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing eastward across the Midwest/OH River Valley. Recent radar imagery shows the initial development of weak thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, which are expected to increase in coverage through 04 UTC across portions of the upper OH Valley. VWP observations are currently sampling 40-50 knot winds within the lowest kilometer, which may manifest at the surface as strong, damaging wind gusts within the deeper convective cores. Additionally, the strong low-level flow is supporting 0-1 km SRH values on the order of 400 m2/2. While typically a concerning value, the meager buoyancy in place across the region (MLCAPE of around 150-200 J/kg per recent ILN and PIT soundings) and residual capping near 750 mb should modulate overall updraft intensities and the potential for a tornado threat. CAM guidance seems to support this idea with negligible updraft speed/UH signals noted among recent HRRR/RRFS/MPAS runs. As such, the predominant threat should remain damaging gusts through the 04 to 06 UTC period. ..Moore.. 11/16/2025
