SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, may occur across parts of Missouri and western Illinois tonight. ...01z Update... Upper ridge is beginning to flatten across the MS Valley as midlevel height falls spread into this region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough. Early-evening water-vapor imagery clearly depicts this feature over NE/KS and a 60-70kt 500mb speed max will translate across KS into western MO by 06z. This feature will encourage the LLJ to strengthen across MO into western IL, which will aid a corridor of warm advection across the lower MO Valley region through sunrise. One pocket of elevated convection has developed within this zone and scattered convection is spreading across eastern MO into western IL at 0030z. Latest MRMS data suggests small hail is likely occurring within the more robust updrafts. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a strongly sheared, warm advection profile, but only meager MUCAPE is noted for parcels lifted near 850mb. Forecast soundings across the MRGL Risk area show increasing instability later tonight, especially after midnight. As large-scale forcing increases, scattered elevated thunderstorms should develop, some of which may generate hail. ..Darrow.. 11/18/2025
