SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging winds remain possible this evening across portions of south Texas. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the south TX Coast early this evening. As this feature continues to dig southeast, coastal boundary and deeper convergence will shift offshore over the next few hours. Cooling midlevel temperatures and steepening lapse rates have aided buoyancy across this portion of TX and scattered robust convection has matured ahead of the short wave. 00z sounding from BRO exhibits roughly 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but a notable warm layer is observed near 3km. Midlevel cooling should dampen this warm layer and profiles will remain favorable for robust deep convection through 06-08z across deep South TX. Latest radar data suggests several supercell structures are digging toward the coast, with a few likely generating severe hail in excess of golf ball size. Greatest risk for severe will be prior to 06z before the short wave encourages deep convection to focus offshore. ..Darrow.. 11/02/2025
