SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Nov 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Northeast as more zonal flow becomes established across the western and central CONUS today. A broad and pronounced surface trough will accompany the upper-level wave, and will quickly overspread the Northeast through the day as surface high pressure meanders over the MS Valley and the Southeast. Static stability should limit thunderstorm development over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be portions of New England, where just enough boundary-layer mixing may occur to foster adequate buoyancy (albeit scant) for low-topped convection. It is unclear if this convection will become deep enough to support lightning. ...New England this afternoon and evening... A 110+ kt 500 mb jet max will rapidly approach New England during the passage of the aforementioned surface trough. Along the trough, enough lift via low-level confluence will encourage the development of a line of showers. Showers may also develop over Lake Ontario and move ashore given steep low-level lapse rates beneath cool temperatures aloft. Some forecast soundings show minuscule boundary layer buoyancy ahead of and behind the surface trough. Should this occur, some of the showers could develop low-topped convective characteristics. At the moment, confidence in organized thunderstorm development is not overly high. However, if any convection that develops manages to acquire appreciable vertical depth, 45-60 kts of 800-600 mb flow may encourage the downward momentum transport of potentially strong wind gusts. Given the low confidence in organized thunderstorm development though, the risk of 50+ kt thunderstorm wind gusts appears too small to warrant either thunder or severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri/Wendt.. 11/03/2025
