SPC Nov 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Nov 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023

Valid 061200Z – 071200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into
Idaho and far southwest Montana, as well as over Lower Michigan, on

…Synopsis and Discussion…
Surface low is forecast to be over western Lake Superior early
Monday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this
low to another secondary low over central KS. The primary low is
expected to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the
Upper Great Lakes and northeast Ontario into southern Quebec, just
ahead of its parent shortwave trough. Portion of the front close to
the low will make steady eastward progress across the Upper Great
Lakes and OH Valley. Some modest buoyancy is possible across Lower
MI within the warm-air advection zone ahead of the front,
contributing to the potential for a few deeper updrafts and isolated
lightning flashes. Southern portion of the front is expected to
stall across KS and MO amid persistent low-level moisture return.
Low-level convergence will be sustained along this boundary
throughout much of the day, with dewpoints south of the boundary
approaching 60 deg F. Even so, warm mid-level temperatures are
expected to prevent deep convection and limit thunderstorm chances.

Farther west, a pair of shortwave troughs are expected to impact the
Pacific Northwest. The lead wave will likely move through early
Monday, continuing eastward into the northern Rockies Monday
evening. A second, more amplified wave will follow in the wake of
the first, approaching the Pacific Northwest and northern/central CA
coast early Tuesday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures amid
favorable large-scale forcing for ascent will support the potential
for a few deeper convective cores capable of lightning from eastern
OR into southern ID during the afternoon and evening. Multiple
rounds of convection are also possible along the coast as the
shortwaves move through. Cold mid-level temperatures will support
modest buoyancy over this region as well, with some isolated
lightning possible.

..Mosier.. 11/05/2023

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