SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the day along the western Oregon and far northern California coastal region. Strong to locally severe gusts may accompany shallow convection that develops over parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast/southern New England... A mid-level trough initially analyzed over the Great Lakes will steadily amplify southeastward and reach coastal New England tonight. A deepening cyclone will quickly move east across the Lower Great Lakes toward coastal New England tonight in tandem with a cold front. Model guidance continues to show near neutral/scant buoyancy profiles developing immediately ahead of the front. Despite this limited thermodynamic setup, strong large-scale forcing for ascent will act to augment the development of shallow convection later today through this evening. Around 40-60 kt of west-southwesterly flow within the lowest 1-2 km AGL will support a risk for downward momentum transport for a few strong, potentially damaging wind gusts (55-65 mph) during the afternoon and evening. ...Northern California and Oregon Coasts... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across northern CA into southern OR as a larger-scale troughing is maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. The mid-level cold pocket accompanying the trough will result in -22 to -24 deg C 500-mb temperatures atop a moist maritime airmass. Forecast soundings show upwards of a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE with the greatest buoyancy near the coast. Widely scattered thunderstorms will episodically move inland. Very strong flow in the lowest 1-2 km will support the possibility for isolated strong to severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings do show some low-level curvature closer to the coast, with 150-250 m2/s2 effective SRH. As such, if a sustained, land-falling low-topped supercell can develop, a brief tornado could occur. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/05/2025
