SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly on Saturday evening/night, across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... As one shortwave impulse moves offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast early, a vigorous shortwave impulse will dig from the Northern Great Plains into the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest. This will support greater amplification of an expansive upper trough east of the Rockies with a ridge building across the West. Cyclogenesis should occur across the Lower MO Valley, tracking east into the OH vicinity by 12Z Sunday. ...Southeast... Forcing for ascent appears nebulous during the day Saturday in the wake of the aforementioned trough passage along the coastal Mid-Atlantic, and a remnant zonal mid-level flow regime across the Southeast. The prior D2 cold front should stall and undergo a period of frontolysis. Remnant outflow boundaries from overnight/Saturday morning convection may aid in isolated convection during the afternoon, with perhaps a few strong storms in parts of the interior Deep South. By evening into Saturday night, mid-level height falls will increase downstream of the amplifying central states trough, and the residual surface front should accelerate eastward from the Lower MS to TN Valleys. Strengthening flow fields will be most prominent in the mid-levels, largely relegated to overnight. The 00Z GFS appears to be an outlier with a lack of appreciable convection, perhaps related to depictions of weak lapse rates and low RH in the mid-levels. The rest of guidance consensus indicates increasing nocturnal development along the aforementioned cold front and downstream wedge front near the southern Appalachians. Both regimes appear supportive of a low-probability severe highlight. ..Grams.. 11/06/2025
