SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS, which will include modestly amplifying shortwave troughs tonight/early Friday over the Pacific Northwest as well as the Upper Midwest. Steepening lapse rates and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest late this afternoon into evening, as a strong mid-level jet approaches the coastal Pacific Northwest and as a cold front moves inland. Across the Midwest, weak buoyancy is forecast to develop as low-level warm advection strengthens ahead of a cold front and amplifying shortwave trough. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb may yield a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with scattered elevated convection expected primarily during the overnight hours, potentially spanning southeast Iowa and northern portions of Missouri/Illinois/Indiana into Lower Michigan. A low-latitude disturbance is forecast to eject across the southern Gulf Basin toward south Florida late in the period. This feature should encourage a weak surface trough to focus near the south Florida Atlantic Coast. Scattered convection is expected to develop near/east of this boundary during the overnight hours. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/06/2025
