Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Focus for severe potential is on D4/Sunday along the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic Coastal Plain. Major amplification of the eastern CONUS upper trough that commences on D3/Saturday will persist through Sunday. Attendant surface cyclone should track from the Lower Great Lakes towards coastal southern New England through Sunday night. Extending southward from this low, a cold front will push east across the Southeast and largely offshore outside of the FL Peninsula. While the bulk of deep-layer flow amplification will be behind the front, strong deep-layer shear should be present along/ahead of it with at least weak buoyancy. Some guidance has trended upward with the degree of convective coverage, while others indicate a fairly dry frontal passage in this region amid low RH/weak lapse rates in the mid-levels. At this juncture, severe probabilities appear to be at least 5 but less than 15 percent. With a very amplified trough east/ridge west by D5/Monday and a continental airmass overspreading much of the Gulf, severe potential should be minimal early to middle next week.
