SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts are possible today into this evening, across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central Gulf Coast states from afternoon into the overnight period. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving across the central Plains will continue eastward/southeastward throughout the day, progressing across the Mid MS and OH Valleys. Surface low attendant to this system will move from its current location over western Upper MI eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southeastern ON into southern QC. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley tonight, continuing eastward into the Mid-Atlantic overnight. ...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians... The cold front is forecast to interact with low-level moisture advecting northward/northeastward in response to the overall system evolution. Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints just ahead of this front across east-central/southeast MO and southern IL. Expectation is for mid-50s dewpoints to persist ahead of the front over much of the OH Valley, with greater dewpoints anticipated farther south (i.e. low 60s across the TN Valley and mid 60s across the Southeast). However, even with this increasing moisture, airmass destabilization is uncertain, owing to seasonally warm mid-level temperatures and widespread cloudiness. The best forcing for ascent is expected during the afternoon and evening across the middle/upper OH Valley and northern TN Valley, but the lack of surface destabilization will likely result in a predominantly elevated and anafrontal character to thunderstorms in this region. A few instances of isolated hail are possible. Modest surface-based buoyancy is possible farther south from south-central KY through Middle TN where dewpoints preceding the front will likely be the in the low 60s. Robust westerly flow aloft will support strong deep-layer shear, which could result in some modest thunderstorms organization along and ahead of the cold front. Frontal forcing will favor a linear storm mode, with some bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Some hail is possible as well. ...Central Gulf Coast... Greater low-level moisture is anticipated across this region than areas farther north. However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and along the front, will be weaker. Primary forcing across this region will likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado risk. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 11/07/2025
