Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper trough over East TX is forecast to weaken as it moves over the lower MS Valley late this weekend and into early next week.This system will merge with several weaker perturbations over the eastern US as a second trough and strong zonal jet are forecast to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains. Mid-level ridging is expected to develop across the Great Lakes and Southwest early next week. This will likely result in blocked and split mid-level flow before deeper troughing consolidates over the eastern half of the CONUS. As the western ridging builds, flow aloft will trend more northwesterly, suppressing overall amplification of the Plains trough. Isolated severe potential remains possible D4/Sunday and D5/Monday over parts of the southern Plains and the ArkLaMiss where remnant moisture should intersect with enhanced flow aloft. However, poor lapse rates and several rounds of proceeding storms lends low confidence to specific hazards or spatial coverage. Through the remainder of next week, broad eastern US troughing will persist with strong northwesterly flow aloft over the western and central US. A strong cold front will develop and sweep eastward midweek, with surface high pressure developing in its wake. This will likely keep substantial moisture return and resulting buoyancy subdued for the foreseeable future.
