SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is possible by Sunday evening into early Monday, though the severe threat appears more conditional. ...Central Gulf Coast... A remnant MCS or cluster of strong storms should be ongoing over the lower MS Valley early Sunday. This cluster is likely to continue over parts of the central Gulf Coast through midday as strong flow aloft associated with an advancing upper trough moves eastward. Rich boundary-layer moisture and modest low-level warm advection ahead of these storms will likely support a continued severe risk given MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs. Isolated severe gusts and a brief tornado will remain possible with the stronger cores through midday. With time, these storms will move offshore and to the east where cooler and more stable surface conditions are expected north of a stalled coastal warm front. Some air mass recovery is possible behind the initial convection over southern MS, AL and the FL Panhandle, where lingering 60s F dewpoints and some diurnal heating are expected. However, this is highly uncertain. A conditional risk for a few stronger storms may develop in the near-shore waters of LA and southern MS/AL late Sunday into the overnight hours. While continued onshore flow may allow for some destabilization immediately inland, the maritime warm front and more unstable surface-based warm sector is expected to remain offshore. A conditional risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado is possible along the immediate coast from southern MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle into early Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2025
