SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is low Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough moving eastward over the Gulf Coast is forecast to weaken Monday as a second upstream trough and northwesterly jet strengthen over the Plains. To the east, a broad mid-level low will deepen over New England as troughing consolidates across the eastern US. This will favor a strong and mostly zonal northwesterly flow regime over the central and western US. A weak surface low along a stalled front across the northeast Gulf Coast will begin moving southward in response to the increased northwesterly flow aloft. This will drag the front southward through the day and eventually offshore overnight into Tuesday. ...Southern GA into Fl... Widespread stratiform precipitation and isolated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing north of the front early Monday, limiting diurnal destabilization and reinforcing the southward motion of the front. While additional elevated storms are possible through the afternoon with increased isentropic ascent, the increasingly muted buoyancy suggests little if any severe risk with this elevated convection. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts remains possible across the northern FL Peninsula where enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread weak to moderate buoyancy amid typically moist surface conditions. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (around 6-6.5 C/km), limited forcing for ascent and eventual undercutting by the sagging cold front lends low confidence in any sustained severe risk Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2025
