SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... A localized risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will briefly focus over a small portion of the Florida Panhandle this morning. ...FL Panhandle... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western TN which is forecast to move east today and reach the southern Appalachians tonight. A mid-level dryslot has moved into the northeast Gulf of America early this morning and is co-located with an 80-kt speed max at 300 mb. In the low levels, a stationary maritime front is draped over the southern portions of the FL Panhandle with a moisture-rich and adequately unstable airmass along and south of the boundary. Easterly low-level flow veering to westerly with height in the mid levels has resulted in a wind profile supporting updraft rotation. A couple of surface-based supercells have been observed approaching the coast this morning with cycling mesocyclones. A few hours of localized severe potential may develop inland over the southern portion of the FL Panhandle through the late morning. A tornado and/or a damaging gust or two are possible with the supercell activity near the coast. Elsewhere, general thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Great Plains states. Elongated hodographs over the central High Plains may aid in the development of a stronger storm or two late this afternoon/early evening, but storm intensity will probably remain limited. A few storms exhibiting transient rotation may develop over the near-shore waters to the east of the FL-GA-SC coast, but models primarily show this activity remaining offshore over the continental shelf/Gulf Stream. ..Smith/Weinman.. 10/27/2025
