SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Storms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible from parts of the Sabine River Valley into southeast Texas today. ...Sabine River Valley/Southeast Texas... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today. The exit region of an associated jet streak will overspread the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain. A moist airmass will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, moderate instability is likely to develop across much of this airmass. Low-level convergence along and near the front will likely result in thunderstorm development over the Ark-La-Tex around midday. Additional storms are expected to form southwestward into southeast Texas along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across southeast Texas at 21Z have MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots. This would support an isolated supercell threat with cells that remain discrete and that have access to the stronger instability. Any storm that can exhibit supercell characteristics could be associated with isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts, and a marginal tornado threat. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/28/2025
