SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to consolidate across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves eastward across parts of the TN/OH Valleys. A surface low initially near the AR/MO/TN border region is forecast to weaken through the day, with secondary low development expected across parts of the Southeast. A cold front will move through parts of GA and the Carolinas through the period. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward from the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Parts of GA into the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic... Surface-based instability is expected to remain negligible during the day along/ahead of the cold front moving across parts of the Southeast. A weakly convective rain band (with little or no lightning) may develop from late afternoon into the evening from GA into the western Carolinas, as large-scale ascent increases and the front encounters very modest elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE likely near or below 100 J/kg). Gusty winds may occur with this frontal band as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though lingering low-level stability is expected to limit potential for convectively enhanced severe gusts at the surface. Late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, somewhat richer low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) may spread across coastal NC, as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to secondary surface-low development. Weak lapse rates will generally limit buoyancy, but isolated and at least weakly organized cells cannot be ruled out near the coast. At this time, most guidance suggests that weak instability will tend to limit the organized-severe threat. Farther north, sporadic lightning flashes will also be possible with mainly elevated convection moving across parts of the Mid Atlantic late in the period. ..Dean.. 10/28/2025
