SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may occur from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Severe potential appears low at this time. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough and jet maximum dig southeastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low initially near the central Appalachians is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward toward New England. A cold front will sweep through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic during the day, and move eastward across parts of New England by Thursday night. ...Eastern NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic... Extensive precipitation with embedded thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from eastern NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic. While at least low 60s F dewpoints may advance inland in conjunction with the deepening surface low, weak lapse rates and widespread cloudiness/precipitation are expected to limit surface-based destabilization. The most aggressive guidance with respect to destabilization (such as the NAM/RRFS) would support some potential for organized convection along/ahead of the cold front from the morning into at least the early afternoon, in the presence of strong deep-layer flow/shear. However, the bulk of guidance depicts very limited destabilization, and uncertainty regarding the development of sufficient instability precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/28/2025
