SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA/ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk will be possible mainly during the mid/late afternoon and evening across east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...East/Southeast Texas to ArkLaTex/Louisiana... Large-scale trough amplification will steadily occur from the Great Plains toward the Ozarks/Mid-South through tonight. A related southeastward-moving cold front will reach the Lower Mississippi Valley by this evening, intercepting a relatively moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) that will continue to advect northward across southeast/east Texas and southern/western Louisiana. Ample warm-sector pre-frontal heating will occur into the afternoon particularly across east/southeast Texas, where mixed-layer buoyancy may exceed 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Increasing storm development/intensification is expected into mid/late afternoon near the advancing front, with strengthening winds aloft (45+ kt effective shear) supportive of organized storms including a few supercells. Any such supercells could pose a risk for large hail, and possibly some tornado risk. Damaging winds may also occur as storms increase/merge and spread east-southward from far east/southeast Texas into Louisiana by early/mid-evening. Current thinking is the overall risk will remain relatively isolated, but subsequent outlooks will reevaluate any need for somewhat higher probabilities on a sub-regional basis. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/28/2025
