SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT PROBABILITY LABEL ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday. Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature, with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe potential. Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 2 update. ..Leitman.. 10/28/2025
