Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a substantial cold frontal passage across the East, generally dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail through much of the extended range, as a large-scale mid/upper-level trough and extensive surface ridge persist across the central/eastern CONUS and limit potential for substantial moisture return. On D5/Saturday, modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of Deep South TX and the TX Gulf Coast, in response to a midlevel shortwave trough digging southward across the Great Plains. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance (aside from the more aggressive 28/00Z GFS) suggests destabilization will be too weak to support an organized severe threat, though at least some thunderstorm activity could accompany this system. Some thunderstorm potential could linger near the Gulf Coast into D6/Sunday and D7/Monday, but most guidance suggests only low potential for substantial inland moisture return and destabilization into early next week.
