SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail, marginally severe wind gusts, and an isolated tornado risk will be possible early this evening across far southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the southern Plains, with strong westerly flow in place over much of the Southeast. At the surface, a front is moving southeastward across far southeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s F. This is contributing to weak instability along a relatively narrow axis just ahead of the front. Widely-spaced strong storms are ongoing just to the east of this moist axis, with the most organized convection located in southwest Louisiana. The Lake Charles 00Z sounding has a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 55 knot range. Directional shear is present in the low to mid-levels and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is 175 m2/s2. This could support a marginal tornado threat over the next hour or two. Supercells may also be capable of producing isolated large hail and/or wind damage, but the threat is expected to become more isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the region over the next couple of hours. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2025
