SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may occur across the Mid-Atlantic states/Delmarva vicinity today. ...Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... The upper trough centered over the Cumberland Plateau/central Appalachians will continue northeastward today toward the Northeast, with the exit region of a strong polar jet similarly spreading from the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians toward the Northeast. Beneath diffluent flow aloft, a surface low will continue to deepen from the Blue Ridge/Delmarva north-northeastward toward southeast/east New York by tonight, with a northward-flux of a seasonally moist air mass (low/middle 60s F surface dewpoints) along the immediate coast/I-95 general vicinity. This low-level moisture/modest buoyancy will continue to semi-interface with a northward-transitioning low-level jet across the Mid-Atlantic, with strong low-level shear/SRH accentuated by backed (southeasterly) near-surface winds to the east of the surface low track. This scenario could yield a few supercells, including related potential for locally damaging winds and/or a tornado today. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 10/30/2025
