SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough moving quickly across the central/eastern Dakotas. This shortwave is embedded within broad upper troughing that covers much of the western and central CONUS. Upper ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic covers much of the eastern CONUS. Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern ND/SD border vicinity. A cold front extends southward from this low across eastern SD and then back more southwestward across central NE and northwest KS. This low is expected to progress quickly northeastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, with the cold front making steady eastward/southeastward progress as well. Airmass preceding this cold front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints likely in the upper 50s/lows 60s from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, despite relatively strong pre-frontal heating/mixing. Even with these warm and modestly moist pre-frontal conditions, buoyancy will remain limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Still, thunderstorm development appears probable along the length of front from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains. Given the limited buoyancy and front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer vertical shear, much of this development will likely be undercut quickly by the progressive front. This convective evolution should temper the overall severe potential, despite seasonally strong mid-level southwesterly flow near the frontal zone. Greatest severe threat is expected over western/central KS, where the best overlap between the modest buoyancy and moderate shear exists. A few more organized updrafts capable of producing large hail and strong gusts are possible here. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 10/05/2025
