SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Broad high pressure over the eastern CONUS will remain in place this evening as an expansive cloud shield from TS Imelda overspreads the Atlantic Coast. Over the West, weak ascent ahead of an upper trough and cold front were supporting scattered weak thunderstorms over the Great Basin and Rockies. Modest surface moisture favoring only weak buoyancy (MLCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) will continue to limit convective intensity over the western US despite enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. While a stray severe gust cannot be ruled out over portions of NV/ID or NM/CO, organized severe storms are not expected through tonight as convection should gradually weaken. ...FL and the Southeast US Atlantic Coast... Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to continue to strengthen off the FL Coast tonight, but will remain well offshore per latest NHC forecast guidance. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in distant outer rain bands from much of the FL Peninsula northward to the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of strong to severe convection is expected to remain low due to modest low-level shear/buoyancy. ..Lyons.. 09/30/2025
