MD 0949 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Areas affected…portions of eastern Alabama into southwestern
Georgia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 251603Z – 251730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…A locally higher severe threat may accompany a more robust
cluster of thunderstorms moving southeast along the AL/GA border
area. A categorical Slight Risk upgrade is anticipated for an
increased severe wind/hail risk, with convective trends also being
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…An organized cluster of strong multicells and perhaps
transient supercells has recently become established in east-central
AL, and is poised to continue tracking southeastward early this
afternoon. These storms are preceded by an unstable airmass (i.e.
MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg), where a modest 500 mb speed max is
also passing by. As such, a locally higher overlap of favorable
buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will promote at least a locally
severe wind and hail threat. In response, a categorical upgrade to
Slight Risk will be made in the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.
Convective trends are also being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending greater storm coverage.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FFC…TAE…BMX…MOB…
LAT…LON 32698620 32748497 32178386 31488332 30898332 30428367
30318433 30568504 31028576 32218635 32698620
