SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Valid 271200Z – 281200Z
The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to
expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include
portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of
upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm
development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places
farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to
fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the
expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook.
Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/
…Synopsis…
As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the
northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are
expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana,
western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is
also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern
Nevada into southwestern Utah.
…Dry Thunder…
An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances
for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana,
Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit
some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still
remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer
profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could
contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions.
…Southern Great Basin…
Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected
across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the
meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is
uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to
recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of
critical highlights at this time.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product…
