MD 0977 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Areas affected…far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 261836Z – 262100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may
develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity.
DISCUSSION…Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO
tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region
is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of
moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate
plume over eastern OK.
Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the
surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both
instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large
hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed
east into a more favorable low-level shear environment.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SGF…EAX…TSA…ICT…
LAT…LON 36569329 36489445 36659525 36939540 37299531 37609514
37859493 38159446 38409307 38249250 37889215 37489210
36969241 36799274 36569329
