SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 201200Z – 261200Z

A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the
western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day
8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced
mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a
prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest
fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only
marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several
days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week
will likely allow fuels to become critically dry.

…Day 3/Monday…
Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday
as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread
critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds.
While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather
broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent
rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and
the general state of fuels across Arizona.

Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather
conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing
to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be
refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a
few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions
of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce
probabilities.

…Day 4/Tuesday…
Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday
with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over
portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather
conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds
overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather
conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after
recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes
increasing the critical probabilities.

…Day 5/Wednesday – Day 6/Thursday…
Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day
6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the
Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will
promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each
day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico.

…Day 7/Friday – Day 8/Saturday…
While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble
guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late
this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest.
This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather
conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of
dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead
to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then.

..Elliott.. 05/18/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product…

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