SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Valid 181200Z – 241200Z
By early this weekend a broad, longwave trough is expected over the
far northern/northwestern CONUS with a subtropical jet continuing to
progress east-northeastward from the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas.
The mid to upper flow will then begin to amplify a bit late this
weekend into next week as an upper trough digs into the Great Basin
and a southern stream shortwave trough approaches southern
California. Stronger southwest flow aloft will begin to develop
across much of the western half of the CONUS as this occurs,
especially by D5/Monday from the northern Baja Peninsula into the
central and southern High Plains. As the week progresses, the upper
trough will traverse the Plains Tuesday and the eastern half of
CONUS by D7/Wednesday. Shortwave ridging will follow it over the
Plains as a north Pacific upper low digs a bit into the Great Basin.
Modest quasi-zonal flow will encompass most of the southern CONUS by
D8/Thursday.
…Southwest and Southern High Plains…
Increasing west to southwest surface winds are expected across New
Mexico and the High Plains D3/Saturday as a lee surface trough
slowly begins to deepen in response to increasing orthogonal mid
level flow across the southern Rockies. Some locally elevated fire
weather conditions will likely develop on D3/Saturday across
portions of northern Arizona where fine fuels receiving little to
zero appreciable rainfall will be drier, but limited area-wide
receptive fuels will preclude an introduction of higher
probabilities. Increasing sustained surface wind speeds will begin
to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles through southeast
New Mexico and West Texas D4/Sunday afternoon. Mid-level
southwesterlies will continue to increase D4-D5 Monday/Tuesday from
the Desert Southwest across the southern and central Rockies,
promoting continued sustained surface wind speeds across southern
New Mexico and portions of west Texas ahead of a cold front moving
into the Texas panhandle. Fuels will continue to cure across New
Mexico, central and southern Arizona through the end of the week
where appreciable precipitation is not anticipated, although
elevated surface wind speeds will likely remained confined to
southwestern New Mexico D7/Wednesday. By D8/Thursday, however, more
widespread 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds are expected to develop
across much of New Mexico again where RH below 15% will be present.
..Barnes/Nauslar.. 05/16/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product…
