MD 1094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Areas affected…Northeast LA into central/southern MS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 311923Z – 312130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe-thunderstorm threat could evolve this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Several small, weakly rotating cells have developed
this afternoon across east-central MS, within a weakly capped and
moderately buoyant (MLCAPE of near or above 1000 J/kg) environment.
While deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, vertical shear is
somewhat enhanced by backed low-level flow near a retreating diffuse
baroclinic zone, and a transient supercell or two cannot be ruled
out, with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a brief
tornado.
Farther southwest, deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker south of the
warm front, but MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg and increasingly
warm/moist surface conditions could support locally damaging winds
as convection spreads northeastward out of Louisiana through the
afternoon.
..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BMX…MOB…JAN…LIX…
LAT…LON 33218859 32948836 32438833 31918838 31538864 31388872
31118968 31339105 31979123 32769120 33269028 33348962
33318922 33218859
