MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383… FOR SOUTHWEST KS TO NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024
Areas affected…Southwest KS to northwest OK
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383…
Valid 030800Z – 030930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
continues.
SUMMARY…Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is
expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across
southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards
northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will
be considered as it approaches.
DISCUSSION…A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across
southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and
MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind
gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This
QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy
advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph
should become more numerous into daybreak.
While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development
spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with
00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK.
Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual
outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely.
..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ICT…OUN…DDC…AMA…
LAT…LON 38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780
36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129
37690139 38280065
