MD 1155 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385… FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024
Areas affected…Northeast Texas…Northern Louisiana…Southern
Arkansas
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385…
Valid 032336Z – 040130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385
continues.
SUMMARY…An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible
with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from
northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION…The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that
is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A
pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where
surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the
2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong
large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level
convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as
it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The
WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with
directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue
to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments
along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the
line could also have a hail threat.
..Broyles.. 06/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…LZK…SHV…HGX…FWD…
LAT…LON 33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154
32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651
32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387
