MD 1194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Areas affected…Portions of southwest/south-central ND and
northwest/north-central SD
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 072316Z – 080045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A localized strong to severe storm capable of marginally
severe hail and locally strong/damaging winds is possible during the
next couple hours.
DISCUSSION…Isolated thunderstorm development is underway over
southwest ND into northwest SD — generally focused along a weak
east/west-oriented stationary boundary. This activity is developing
along the northern edge of a plume of weak surface-based
instability, and this weak instability is the main mitigating factor
for a more robust severe-storm risk. However, proximity forecast
soundings indicate strong deep-layer shear (around 60 kt of
effective shear) — characterized by a long/straight hodograph. This
wind profile may support brief updraft organization (with transient
midlevel rotation) — capable of producing marginally severe hail
(up to 1 inch) and locally strong/damaging winds (45-60 mph) for the
next couple hours. Overall, the weak instability should limit the
severe threat.
..Weinman/Majchrowski/Bunting.. 06/07/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ABR…BIS…UNR…
LAT…LON 45680266 45950261 46270240 46430217 46530162 46460076
46170000 45519981 44970025 44850105 45040208 45310256
45680266
