MD 1420 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…NORTHEASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN IOWA…AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Areas affected…southeastern Nebraska…northeastern
Kansas…southwestern Iowa…and northwestern Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 260413Z – 260515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered strong/severe storms over portions of Nebraska
and southern Iowa should expand southeastward and increase in
coverage over the next few hours. New WW — extending into
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, will be needed
shortly.
DISCUSSION…Latest radar loop shows clusters of strong/severe
storms from north-central Nebraska to southwestern Iowa, moving
steadily southeastward. With a moderately unstable airmass (3000 to
3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) ahead
of the convection into Kansas/Missouri, and a moderate southwesterly
low-level jet observed, continued southeasterly advance of the
convection is expected. With this area beneath the
leading/expanding edge of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow,
storms should organize/grow upscale with time, propagating southward
with attendant risks for large hail and damaging winds. The
anticipated/expanding risk will warrant new WW issuance shortly.
..Goss/Gleason.. 06/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DMX…EAX…OAX…TOP…
LAT…LON 38559430 38839636 39669721 41009719 41499708 40849273
39109251 38729296 38559430
