MD 2290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Areas affected...central Gulf Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271308Z - 271415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A low-probability, brief tornado risk may persist through
the rest of mid-morning across southeast Mississippi.
DISCUSSION...A confluent band of mainly discrete convection has
persisted over the past couple hours, generally perpendicular to a
northwest/southeast-oriented warm front that is roughly approaching
a PIB to MOB line. Transient supercell structures have been noted,
and these may persist through about 15Z. The 12Z LIX RAOB sampled a
bit of near-surface stability, but otherwise contained a
conditionally favorable buoyancy/shear space for a supercell
tornado. As noted in the 13Z SWODY1, the background synoptic
environment is unlikely to support substantially greater
organization. In conjunction, with further waning of large-scale
ascent, overall tornado potential in this area should be brief and
temporally diminish by late morning.
..Grams/Edwards.. 12/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31398902 31288834 30968788 30828772 30268808 30238845
30278896 30228946 30288971 30538972 31188918 31398902
