MD 0072 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4… FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHEAST KY AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025
Areas affected...Parts of middle/eastern TN into southeast KY and
far southwest VA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4...
Valid 070041Z - 070215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two, hail, and damaging wind
will continue through the evening.
DISCUSSION...A supercell has gradually matured over the last 1-2
hours to the northeast of Nashville, while other cells continue to
develop and intensify near and just north of a surface boundary
across southeast KY. Some increase in low-level flow/shear was noted
earlier from the KOHX VWP, with short-term guidance suggesting that
low-level flow will continue to increase this evening as ongoing
convection spreads eastward into eastern TN and far southeast
KY/southwest VA. With nocturnal cooling/stabilization expected to be
only gradual through the evening, MLCAPE will likely remain in the
500-1000 J/kg range in advance of the ongoing convection, with
favorable deep-layer shear continuing to support supercell
structures and potentially one or more semi-organized clusters.
With only a slow increase in MLCINH expected, ongoing supercells may
persist through much of the evening, with some potential tendency
toward modest upscale growth with time. While low-level flow remains
rather veered, effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will support
some tornado threat with any persistent right-moving supercells.
Otherwise, isolated large hail will be possible, especially with any
left-moving supercells, while damaging wind could accompany any
stronger supercells or organized clusters.
..Dean.. 02/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 37188239 36728210 36528206 36028259 35718317 35648440
35698527 35888546 36518537 36898492 37048449 37268346
37278306 37188239
