MD 0209 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Areas affected...portions of central and northern Indiana into far
southeast Lower Michigan and western Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151948Z - 152115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail/wind or a
brief tornado are possible into early evening.The severe threat
should be sparse at best and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually increasing in
coverage and intensity within a low-level moisture axis preceding
the approach of a mid-level trough. Vertical strengthening and
veering of flow with height supports 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
KIWX radar shows that some of the more recent, stronger storm
structures have exhibited multicellular to transient supercellular
characteristics. However, these storms are progressing in a
marginally unstable environment, characterized by 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
As such, one of the stronger storms could produce an instance of
marginally severe hail/wind/a brief tornado. However, the severe
threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...
LAT...LON 39438766 41008646 42358526 42818360 42638322 42248321
41808337 41068290 40438305 39708345 39438427 39548566
39438766
