MD 2039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025
Areas affected...portions of far northeast Texas into extreme
southeast Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060105Z - 060200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts could still occur over the next few
hours.
DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster has produced at least one
pronounced downburst, with wind damage noted, along with 1+ inch
diameter hail. This complex continues to track north of a zonal
frontal boundary, where 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE resides downstream.
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the aforementioned buoyancy
would continue to support severe gusts. However, MLCINH should also
increase with time. The current thinking is that the severe threat
should remain confined to the ongoing complex, where a few strong to
severe gusts may still occur.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33609698 33949595 34049541 34029494 33789473 33479473
33199507 33109553 33119611 33169669 33609698
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
