MD 2050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA…SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025
Areas affected...North-central Nebraska...south-central South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082324Z - 090030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe gust or marginally severe hail is
possible with the strongest storms. Activity will likely diminish
around sunset.
DISCUSSION...A weak area of mid-level ascent near the Black Hills
has helped promote widely scattered storm development near a weak
surface low in north-central Nebraska and south-central North
Dakota. Over the past 2 hours, updrafts have generally struggled to
maintain intensity, likely due to weak large scale support and dry
air entrainment. However, a couple storms have showed more intense
cores within the last 30-45 minutes. With around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 30 kts of 0-6 km shear (per KLNX VAD), an isolated severe gust
or marginal hail is possible. MLCIN to the east should limit the
duration of any more intense activity. Storms are likely to weaken
by sunset.
..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43039969 42669983 42040033 41910062 41970093 42570145
42870132 43180080 43650001 43439967 43039969
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
