MD 2082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Areas affected...Much of Wyoming into far western South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 152133Z - 152330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores
this afternoon into early evening.
DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have gradually been increasing
in intensity this afternoon. These storms are overspreading a very
dry boundary layer, with RAP forecast soundings showing inverted-v
profiles extending up to 600 mb, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg DCAPE.
Furthermore, these storms are embedded in a 500 mb wind maximum,
where 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear are in place. As such,
sustained storms atop a well-mixed boundary layer may produce
isolated severe gusts, especially where deeper cores may materialize
this afternoon into the early evening hours.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43281021 44960558 45200369 44890291 44320272 43750295
43360342 42900413 42490515 42250619 42130731 42140834
42310928 43281021
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
