MD 2140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025
Areas affected...portions of central New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072307Z - 080100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may produce severe hail over the next
few hours, and an instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail are
possible.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells continues to progress eastward
amid an amply sheared, and adequately unstable environment. MRMS
MESH data suggests that the leading supercell may be occasionally
producing hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Furthermore, modifying
the 18Z ABQ observed sounding to reflect the latest low-level
thermodynamic profile shows that nearly 1000 J/kg SBCAPE remains in
place given near 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. When factoring in the
elongated hodographs and associated strong speed shear with the
aforementioned buoyancy, the thinking is that the supercells will
persist at their current intensity for at least a couple more hours,
with continued severe potential. Given the favorable hodograph
structure, despite modest buoyancy, an instance or two of hail
approaching 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out. The marginal
thermodynamic profile downstream will likely inhibit a longer term
severe threat.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 10/07/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34500738 34730675 34690590 34470585 34340594 34190637
34190681 34200698 34220722 34500738
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
