SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...MI/OH... A deep and cold upper low will track across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, with the primary surface cold front sweeping eastward across the upper OH Valley. Model guidance is in agreement of a shortwave trough rotating around the base of the upper low Tuesday afternoon. Daytime heating in the post-frontal air mass ahead of this trough, combined with steep lapse rates and residual moisture will lead to scattered low-topped, fast-moving showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI and northern OH. Forecast soundings suggest minimal CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong winds aloft and favorable low-level lapse rates may result in gusty or even damaging winds in this activity. Will maintain sub-5% severe wind probabilities at this time, but area will be re-evaluated in upcoming updates. ..Hart.. 10/20/2025
