MD 2162 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN OH AND LAKE ERIE
Mesoscale Discussion 2162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025
Areas affected...Central/northern OH and Lake Erie
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 212201Z - 220000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible into early
evening.
DISCUSSION...Despite scant low-level moisture, low-topped convection
with occasional lightning as developed from eastern MI into parts of
OH, aided by cold midlevel temperatures (near/below -25 C at 500
mb). These showers and embedded storms will spread eastward into
early evening, in conjunction with a low-amplitude midlevel
shortwave trough and surface trough/cold front. Steep low-level
lapse rates and increasing flow in the lowest 1-2 km will support
gusty winds in association with this convection. One gust to 62 mph
was measured near Lima, OH (KAOH) at 2045 UTC, with more recent
gusts of 45-50 mph noted at other sites across western OH. Gusts of
45-60 mph will remain possible into early evening as this convection
spreads across central/northern OH and Lake Erie, before increasing
low-level stability results in a diminishing threat.
..Dean/Guyer.. 10/21/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 41618336 42018209 42288130 42298080 42138058 41798058
41218063 40658104 40218163 39858251 39748325 39808412
40538385 41618336
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
